This study evaluates the techno-economic viability of blue hydrogen from retrofitted steam methane reforming (SMR) plants and green hydrogen from renewable-powered electrolysis in Spain’s road transport sector from 2020 to 2050. Using an updated energy systems model based on LEAP and OSeMOSYS, the analysis compares investment costs, operational efficiency, and long-term economic competitiveness across multiple hydrogen production pathways under three policy scenarios: a ban on fossil-based hydrogen without CCS in 2030, 2035, and 2040.
The results show that SMR with CCS retrofit is economically feasible in the short to medium term, with investment costs decreasing slightly over time due to economies of scale and mature technology. However, its advantage diminishes rapidly after 2030 as electrolysis becomes increasingly cost-competitive. By 2030, the investment cost for water electrolysis drops by 50% compared to 2020 levels, and by 2050, it is projected to fall below 10 GJ⁻¹·y⁻¹—making it the most economical option for large-scale hydrogen production. In contrast, SMR with CCS remains marginally viable only until 2036, after which it is fully displaced by electrolysis.
Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under conservative cost reduction assumptions for electrolysis, the shift toward green hydrogen is unavoidable. A 40% reduction in electrolyzer investment costs still leads to full market dominance by 2035, while more optimistic projections accelerate this timeline further. This indicates low sensitivity of the overall production mix to variations in electrolysis cost trends.
Operational costs also play a critical role. The integration of CCS increases energy penalties in SMR plants, raising operating expenses after the ban year. Meanwhile, falling renewable electricity prices enhance the economic attractiveness of electrolysis. When natural gas prices exceed 79 €/MWh, electrolysis becomes the sole viable option throughout the entire period, regardless of scenario.Glypican-4/GPC4 ProteinMedChemExpress
Despite its temporary role, SMR with CCS retrofit offers a strategic advantage: it enables early deployment of low-carbon hydrogen without requiring massive upfront infrastructure changes.ATG3 Antibody Purity & Documentation It leverages existing assets, reduces transition risk, and supports grid stability during the energy shift.PMID:34739167 However, its long-term sustainability depends on timely policy signals and continued innovation in carbon capture technologies.
In conclusion, while blue hydrogen serves as a crucial bridge in the near term, green hydrogen is poised to become the dominant and most cost-effective solution by mid-century. For Spain and other countries aiming to decarbonize transport, this implies a dual strategy: supporting retrofits of existing SMR facilities to meet immediate demand while investing heavily in renewable energy and electrolyzer manufacturing to secure long-term energy independence and environmental benefits.MedChemExpress (MCE) offers a wide range of high-quality research chemicals and biochemicals (novel life-science reagents, reference compounds and natural compounds) for scientific use. We have professionally experienced and friendly staff to meet your needs. We are a competent and trustworthy partner for your research and scientific projects.Related websites: https://www.medchemexpress.com